NFC Divisional Playoffs: Bears-Seahawks Preview

It's crunch time now. Here's my preview of Sunday afternoon's Divisional Playoff game between the Bears and Seahawks:

Who Has the Edge?

Offense
The Bears will likely start off establishing the run with Thomas Jones and limiting Rex Grossman to short and intermediate routes to the RBs and TE Desmond Clark. If Grossman has success, then the coaches may allow him to take some deep shots against the patchwork Seattle secondary. The game plan will also depend on the weather, which is expected to be a "wintry mix" of snow, sleet, etc. If Grossman throws one pick, he'll probably be given one last chance. One more pick, and it'll be time for the fans' savior, Brian Griese. Grossman just has to trust his reads, throw to the open man, and not forget about Clark. This offense is at its best when Clark is involved. Seattle will likely try to pound the ball with Shaun Alexander, who missed the Bears' 37-6 beating of the Seahawks in October. Alexander hasn't fully looked like himself (or at least the 2005 version, anyway) at any point this season, but he is still a dangerous RB. With WRs Darrell Jackson and D.J. Hackett being game-time decisions and not likely to play, Deion Branch and former Bear Bobby Engram should be Matt Hasselbeck's main targets. TE Jerramy Stevens had a big game against Dallas last week, but is inconsistent (and has a big mouth). If the Bears can fluster him early, they can greatly reduce his effectiveness. Edge: Bears

Defense
The Bears' defense is as healthy as it's been for a long time. Mike Brown and Tommie Harris are on IR, but virtually everyone else is mostly healthy now. CB Charles Tillman returns from a bad back and will help restore order in the secondary, allowing Ricky Manning Jr. to return to his nickel back position. Todd Johnson will likely see some time at strong safety, but it looks like Chris Harris will keep his starting job at the position for now. DTs Tank Johnson and Ian Scott must generate some pressure up the middle to help the defensive ends and reduce the Bears' need to blitz. Mark Anderson introduced himself to Walter Jones in the Bears' blowout win, it'll be interesting to see how Jones handles him this time around. Hitting Alexander before he can get a full head of steam will be very important, as will getting a consistent pass rush on Hasselbeck. Seattle's secondary is extremely banged up, with CBs Marcus Trufant, Kelly Herndon, and Jimmy Williams out. Safety-turned-cornerback Jordan Babineaux will likely be covering Muhsin Muhammad, and rookie Kelly Jennings will likely draw Bernard Berrian, with nickel back and former loan officer Pete Hunter drawing Rashied Davis/Mark Bradley. Davis or Bradley could come up with a big play here. The Seahawks will have to generate pressure on Grossman in any way they can, with or without blitzing, because he will pick them apart if he has time and space in the pocket. Edge: Bears

Special Teams
With Tillman back in the fold and Ricky Manning Jr. back in his nickel position, Devin Hester can now just focus on returns, so maybe that will get him out of his recent slump. He must make sure to secure the ball in what are likely to be adverse weather conditions. Robbie Gould needs to stay consistent, and we've seen the importance of getting the snap and the hold right. Nate Burleson has been pretty dangerous for the Seahawks as a return man, with one punt returned for a TD in the regular season and a 24.7 average on kickoff returns. Kicker Josh Brown is as clutch as they come, having already made a few game-winning field goals this season. Edge: Bears

Coaching
Mike Holmgren has had his share of success against the Bears (thanks mostly to Brett Favre), but whatever edge he has in experience over Lovie Smith may be offset by the lack of players he can put on the field on Sunday. Holmgren will have to do one hell of a coaching job to have his team in position to win. If Smith doesn't make any big mistakes, his team should come out on top. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner needs to watch his playcalling, which has become predictable and too pass-happy at times this season. Throw too many quick slants and skinny posts, and teams will start jumping those routes. Edge: Even

Intangibles
History and the weather look to be the biggest intangibles here. The Bears haven't won a home playoff game since 1991, and a playoff game anywhere since 1995. They have lost two home playoff games in a row after having first round byes. If they fall behind early, will the players think "here we go again"? Or will their bitter memories of last year's divisional playoff loss to the Panthers spur them on to victory? If the weather is very sloppy, it may limit the passing game for both teams and make turnovers more likely. After winning a game they probably should've lost, the Seahawks are playing with house money. Will they come out fired up and looking for revenge? Edge: Even

Prediction
With the weight of history and an entire city on their shoulders, the Bears finally rise to the occasion and win their first home playoff game in 16 years. The defense, now healthy as they'll get, steps up with its best effort since November. Grossman will play reasonably well, and Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson will help chew up the clock, especially if the field is sloppy. Bears 27, Seahawks 13