NFC Championship Game Preview

Here's my in-depth look at Sunday's NFC Championship Game between the Chicago Bears and the New Orleans Saints:

From what the national "experts" have been saying, you would think that the Saints' offense will be lining up with no defense on the field. Contrary to popular opinion, there will also be 11 guys lining up across from them in navy blue jerseys, and some of them are pretty good. What everyone (including the "experts") seems to be forgetting is that you win football games with three phases, not just one. Somewhere along the way, the Saints offense has become almost mythical to many people, like they're the '99 Rams or something. But you win with offense, defense, and special teams. For all the talk about the "best offense in NFL history" (the Saints) and the inconsistent, terrible Bears offense, the Bears scored more points per game than the Saints did in the regular season. Shocked? The Saints offense is "#1" because they had more yards per game than any other offense, but the Bears scored 26.7 points per game this year, and the Saints had 25.8 per game. Not a huge difference, but clearly indicative that the Bears should at least be able to stay close on offense. I'll take points over yards any day. It'll be Cinderella against the Big Bad Bears, here we go:

Offense
Bears Gameplan
The Bears will likely try to establish the run with Thomas Jones and start Rex Grossman off with easy short-to-intermediate throws to get him into a rhythm. Because the Saints' defensive ends will be trying to get upfield quickly to get after Grossman, the Bears may try to run right at them and throw screen passes to keep them off balance. It will be important for Grossman to find TE Desmond Clark, who he found only once in the divisional playoff win over Seattle. As I've repeatedly said this season, this offense is at its best when Grossman throws to Clark, especially in the red zone. If Grossman starts well, then offensive coordinator Ron Turner will likely have him test the Saints' cornerbacks deep via play action, particularly #2 CB Fred Thomas. The Saints like to play press man-to-man coverage on the outside. Some "experts" have said that this will mean disaster for Grossman, but has anyone thought that maybe, just maybe, the reason why the Saints allowed the second-most TD passes of any team during the regular season (26) is because they play man coverage with an average secondary? If the Bears have the lead late, they will likely pound away with a heavy dose of Cedric Benson.

Key Matchups
Bears WR Bernard Berrian vs. Saints CB Fred Thomas: Thomas got burned on a long TD pass to Donte Stallworth against the Eagles last week and is susceptible to double moves like the stop and go that Stallworth put on him. The Bears will likely try to match Berrian on Thomas and toast him at least a couple of times. With his speed, Berrian shouldn't even need a double move to run by Thomas.

Bears LT John Tait vs. Saints RE Will Smith: Tait has had some trouble with speed rushers this season, and Smith fits that bill. Tait will need to play extremely well in protecting Grossman's blind side, especially considering Grossman's propensity to fumble the ball after getting hit.

Saints Gameplan
The Saints will also likely try to establish the run by pounding Deuce McAllister into the middle of the Bears' defensive line, which struggled at times last week against Shaun Alexander. One thing the Saints are likely to try is to spread the Bears' defense out with a three-WR, one-back set, then pound McAllister against the Bears' nickel package. The Seahawks had a lot of success doing that last week. Drew Brees will try to execute short precision passes, especially to his favorite target, rookie Marques Colston. If the Saints have success with the running game, that might open up deep play action shots to speedster Devery Henderson. WR Joe Horn will not play, so Terrance Copper will serve as the third WR. The Saints will also try to line Reggie Bush up all over the field and look for mismatches. Bush may not be able to cut quite as well on grass, but he would still be faster than most players on that surface. If the Saints get a lead, expect to see a lot of McAllister.

Key Matchups
Saints RB Reggie Bush vs. Bears LBs: It'll be interesting to see how the Bears plan to cover Bush. Brian Urlacher is one of the few LBs in the league who could give Bush a run for his money. Lance Briggs isn't quite as fast, and Bush on Hunter Hillenmeyer would not be a good matchup for the Bears. Another thing the Saints may do is put Bush and McAllister in the same backfield, then split Bush out as a WR. In this case, he might have to be covered by a DB. The Saints could also choose to run McAllister out of this formation. Bears defenders must not hesitate when attempting to tackle Bush, or they would likely get juked.

Saints WR Marques Colston vs. Bears CB Charles Tillman: The Bears usually play a "Tampa Two" (a variation of the Cover-2 scheme in which the MLB drops back into the deep middle), but when they faced the Giants earlier this season, they often put Tillman in man-to-man coverage with trash-talking WR Plaxico Burress. Burress was held to four catches for 48 yards. The Bears may try to do the same thing today against Colston, who has great size (6-4) and deceptive speed. Tillman is the Bears' biggest, most physical CB at 6-1, so he is best-suited to cover Colston. Tillman has always struggled with fast WRs, so the Saints may try to match up Henderson on him and take a deep shot.

The Edge
The RBs and WRs for these teams are fairly even, so the slight edge goes to the team that has the more consistent QB, which is the Saints.


Defense
Bears Gameplan
The Bears must focus on three main things: 1) stopping the run, especially up the middle, 2) getting pressure on Brees, and 3) forcing turnovers. Shaun Alexander repeatedly gashed the Bears' D-line up the middle last Sunday, and it would be a long day for them if they let McAllister do the same thing. Brees can pick a defense apart with a surgeon's precision if given time to throw, so DEs Alex Brown, Adewale Ogunleye, and Mark Anderson need to get to Brees early and often. Pressure up the middle from DTs Tank Johnson and Ian Scott would also greatly help, because Brees is even shorter than Grossman and could have trouble throwing over traffic if he has pressure in his face. After averaging around three takeaways per game in the first half of the season, the Bears' takeaway rate has dwindled to about one per game in the past several games. In what is likely to be a very close game, a takeaway (or better yet, a defensive TD) could turn the tide and be the difference in the game.

Saints Gameplan
The major part of the Saints' defensive gameplan will be getting pressure on Grossman in any way possible. Rushing with their front four, blitzing LBs, blitzing DBs, any possible way to rattle Rex. Grossman has shown that, if given time to throw, he can be very accurate and make good decisions. If the Saints can't get pressure on him, it could be a long day for them, especially with an average LB corps and secondary. They'll also try hard to get pressure up the middle to block Grossman's vision. The Saints' second defensive priority will be stopping Jones and Benson. DT Hollis Thomas, suspended for the final four games of the regular season for violating the NFL's drug policy, returned against the Eagles and helped the Saints' run defense. He can be very difficult to move, and the Bears will need to find a way to handle him if they want to have success running the ball.

The Edge
The defensive lines are comparable. With a much better LB corps (featuring two of the best LBs in the league) and a better, deeper secondary, the Bears have the clear edge here.


Special Teams
Bears
Devin Hester is the best return man in the league... when he catches the ball. He had more ball security issues against Seattle, and he simply cannot afford to have any more of them against New Orleans. Catch the ball, secure it, then run. You could make a strong case for kicker Robbie Gould being the MVP of this team, especially after his game-winning 49-yarder in overtime last week. Punter Brad Maynard is solid as usual, and had the additional honor of being voted "sexiest Bear" in a recent newspaper poll. No comment.

Saints
Kickoff returner Michael Lewis isn't as dynamic as he used to be, but the former beer man can still break a long return on occasion. Punt returner Bush is comparable to Hester in ability, but wasn't nearly as productive, with a 7.7 average and one TD (Hester had a 12.8 average and three TDs). Veteran kicker John Carney is up there in age but as accurate as ever, with only two misses in the regular season. His range isn't what it used to be, which is part of the reason why the team signed Billy Cundiff late in the season. Punter Steve Weatherford had a good rookie season, with a 43.8 average and 19 punts downed inside the 20.

The Edge
With the most dangerous return man in the game and a Pro Bowl kicker, the Bears have the edge here as well. Their kickoff coverage team needs to play better than it did against Seattle though.


Coaching
Bears
Bears coach Lovie Smith is in his third season, and the team has gotten better each year under his direction. He will make the occasional questionable decision or mistake (like the much-ballyhooed decison to call timeout with two seconds left in regulation against Seattle), but for the most part they don't hurt the team. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner's playcalling can get a little pass-happy and predictable at times (i.e. using routes like the quick slant repeatedly), but he has done a pretty good job this season. Defensive coordinator Ron Rivera will have his hands full with the Saints' offense, but word is that he'll have some new pressure packages ready for this game. He'll also have to be willing to change his gameplan if necessary. His refusal to give special attention to Steve Smith and make adjustments during the game was a big reason why the Bears lost to the Panthers last season.

Saints
Saints coach Sean Payton has done a remarkable job of changing the losing culture in New Orleans. He has also been a master playcaller, leading the Saints to the #1 offense (in terms of yardage) in the NFL. Defensive coordinator Gary Gibbs has done a pretty good job of getting the most out of an average defense by bringing pressure.

The Edge
The Bears get the slight edge here because Lovie Smith and his staff have been in place for two years (Turner came on board in Smith's second season) and have more experience than Payton. The Bears have also been stellar in games decided by three points or less since Smith took over.


Intangibles
Bears
What kind of effect will the weather have? It'll be around 30 degrees with possible snow flurries at game time, which might give a slight edge to the Bears, who are more used to this weather. A huge weight was lifted off this team's shoulders after their win over Seattle, their first home playoff win in 16 years. How will the Bears react to their biggest game since 1989? And how will they perform after being viewed as the underdog by most of the "experts"? I think this team will play looser and has a good idea of what kind of intensity level they'll need to play at now.

Saints
This football team has lifted the spirits of a city still trying to recover from Hurricane Katrina. The Saints have never been to a Super Bowl. Some feel that this is a team of destiny. The majority of the country (outside of Illinois) will be rooting for them. Win or lose, they've been a great story. It'll be interesting to see how they handle the weather after practicing indoors all week.

The Edge
I'll call it even here. Each team has everything to play for.


Prediction
The Bears' defense, disrespected all week, comes out firing, and the Bears jump out to an early lead. The game will be fairly even after that, but the Bears will do a good job of holding the Saints to field goals, and either the Bears' defense or special teams (or both) will make a big play that directly leads to a score. Grossman will play well, and the Bears will run the ball well. Devin Hester and clutch WR Rashied Davis will also be key factors, but it will be the much-maligned defense that makes the biggest difference today. The Bears have felt a lack of respect all season, now is the time to show everyone how good they really are. Bears 27, Saints 20