Super Bowl XLI Preview: Bears vs. Colts

Here we go, the last day of the season. Which Rex Grossman will show up? Is it Peyton Manning's time? If the Colts win this game, it would be because they played better for 60+ minutes, not because it's Manning's time or because the AFC is "superior". If the Bears win this game, it would be because they were able to dominate the line of scrimmage with their offensive and defensive lines. As usual, the "experts" are mostly against the Bears, and many fans want this to be Manning's coronation. After all the hype and the hoopla, we're down to one game, one dream. Without further ado, here is my in-depth preview of Super Bowl XLI:

Offense
Bears Gameplan
The single biggest factor in this game will be the Bears' running game. Can the Bears run the ball successfully against a much-improved Colts run defense? They'll have to if they want to have any chance of winning this game. The Bears will come out trying to pound the ball down the Colts' throats. We'll see Thomas Jones to start the game, but Cedric Benson, who usually comes in for the game's third series, may come in as early as the second series in an effort to start wearing down the Colts' defense. The Colts' run defense has obviously improved in the playoffs, allowing only 73 yards per game (as opposed to 173 per game during the regular season). Part of this is because of the return of free safety Bob Sanders, and part of it is simply better execution (tackling, positioning, etc.). However, this doesn't change the fact that their defensive line is undersized and can be overpowered like it was at times late in the regular season. Even if the Bears don't have success running early on, they must stick with it as long as they can. The Chiefs, Ravens, and Patriots all gave up on the run too early. Chiefs RBs only ran the ball 14 times, Ravens RBs only 19 times, and Pats RBs only 20 times. The target for the Bears should be at least 35 carries, preferably at least 40. Another reason to run the ball early and often is to try to wear down Colts DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis so they're not as effective in their pass rush. If/when the Colts sell out to stop the run by stacking the line and bringing Sanders as the eighth man in the box, it will be time for Rex Grossman to go to the air via play action and find Bernard Berrian deep. TE Desmond Clark has done a stellar job blocking during the postseason, but he'll likely have to become more of a pass-catching presence for Grossman to be successful. As I've said all season, this offense is at its best when Grossman is finding Clark over the middle and down the seam. There should be opportunities down the seam against the Colts' Cover-2 scheme. WR Muhsin Muhammad, one of the few Bears who have Super Bowl experience, also needs to become more of a factor in the passing game. Moose has just four catches in the Bears' two playoff games. As crazy as it sounds, I think the Bears should not limit Grossman in terms of playcalling. When Rex is repeatedly told to not make mistakes and just manage the game, he tries to be too cautious and doesn't make his throws accurately, often underthrowing or overthrowing his receivers. That's partially why he was only 3-12 in the first half against the Saints. When he has full confidence, he bounces around and zips the ball where it needs to go without hesitation. He also checks down to his RB and FB when there's nothing downfield. That's the Rex you saw in the first half of the season, and that's the Rex that would give the Bears a good chance to win this game.

Watch out for...
The Bears to try double moves off common routes, like the slant and go or out and up. Don't be surprised to see Devin Hester in some kind of trick play on offense, like a reverse. WR Rashied Davis has made clutch catches all season, and WR Mark Bradley (who missed the NFC Championship Game with a sprained ankle) has the best run-after-catch skills of any Bears WR. One or both of them could make a game-changing play. Their offensive line must come up big. The Bears could try to go after rookie safety Antoine Bethea and gimpy CB Nick Harper.

Colts Gameplan
The Colts will also likely try to establish the run with Joseph Addai early. If they have success, it would open up play action for Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark, and that would not be good for the Bears. If Addai does not have success early, the Colts would likely turn to Dominic Rhodes, who is more of a power back. One constant about the Colts' offense over the past several years is the stretch play, a play where Peyton Manning makes a long handoff to the RB while the entire offensive line slants in one direction. I don't think this play will be as effective against the Bears, whose linebackers like Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs can run sideline-to-sideline with the best of them. If the Colts are to have success running the ball against the Bears, I think they will have to run right at Urlacher to minimize his speed and force him to take on a blocker head-on. In the passing game, Manning will do what he always does: bring his team to the line quickly, make his pre-snap reads, change the play/protection (by yelling and making a series of funny hand/arm/leg movements) depending on what he sees, and then finally snap the ball. If Harrison is double-covered, he will gladly throw to Wayne or Clark. If no one is double-covered, he'll just throw it to the WR he thinks is open. Much has been made of Harrison's lack of success in his postseason career, but Manning will not force the ball to him just to make him happy. The Colts may use Wayne in the slot to try to create a mismatch. Clark has more speed and athletic ability than most TEs, and he could be a factor down the seam.

Watch out for...
The Colts' no-huddle offense. If the Bears' defense can't make plays to get off the field, it could wilt in the Miami heat in the second half. Also look for Manning to try to attack the Bears' safeties, particularly rookie Danieal Manning.

Edge
The Colts have the better QB. The RBs are about even. The offensive lines are about even. The Colts have the better receivers. The edge goes to the Colts here.


Defense
Bears Gameplan
The first thing the Bears must do to stop the Colts is stop their running game, particularly with their front seven. If the Colts are able to run on the Bears, that would open up play action for them, and the Colts' offense is at its deadliest when Manning is hitting Harrison, Wayne, and Clark downfield for big gains. The next thing the Bears must do is get pressure on Manning with their front four. Defensive ends Adewale Ogunleye and Alex Brown must not only continue their improved play in the playoffs, they must take it up a notch. If they can't, and they are forced to blitz, that would increase the likelihood of Manning finding someone for a big gain. Penetration, especially up the middle from Tank Johnson and Ian Scott, will be important in disrupting both the running game and Manning. The third thing the Bears must do on defense is stay disciplined. Manning will do his best to confuse the Bears with all of his various gestures. If the Bears start to panic and get out of their gaps/zones, that would leave some area(s) of the field open, and Manning would find those areas. The Bears must be careful to stay home and not get caught out of position, or it could be a long day for them. Another key will be trying to confuse Manning. You're not going to consistently confuse him, but all it takes is one bad read, and he might throw one to you. He's thrown six picks this postseason. Show zone, play man. Show man, play zone. Show blitz, back out. The Bears should also try their best to be physical with the Colts' WRs. The Bears, known as a Cover-2 defense, have played almost 50% man-to-man coverage in the past few games. Letting Harrison, Wayne, and Clark have a free release off the line would be asking for trouble. Getting at least a piece of them at the line could throw off the timing of some of their routes and give the Bears' pass rush the extra second or two it needs to get to Manning. Finally, perhaps the most important key of all: takeaways. Make sure to wrap up when tackling, but try to rip that ball out whenever possible. This defense found another level against the Saints. They'll have to find an even higher one today.

Watch out for...
Bears rookie DE Mark Anderson, who had 12 sacks in the regular season and had a big sack that forced a Drew Brees fumble in the NFC Championship Game. Anderson has the speed to get around any left tackle, though he may be slowed down a bit if the field is wet. Also watch for CB Ricky Manning Jr. to show man coverage, then switch to zone and jump routes. This is how he got some of his interceptions during the season. It has been proven that, if you can limit Manning's possessions, he sometimes gets impatient and makes mistakes.

Colts Gameplan
The Colts' first priority on defense should be trying to stop the Bears' running game. If they can't stop the Bears from running, this game could get ugly pretty quickly. When the Saints had success against the Bears' running game in the third quarter of the NFC Championship Game, most of it was due to penetration. Inside penetration will also be the key for the Colts to disrupt the Bears' running game. Without it, there's a good chance that the Bears' veteran offensive line will be able to overpower the Colts' undersized defensive line. The Colts' main priority on defense will likely be putting pressure on Grossman. Everyone knows how fast Dwight Freeney is. Robert Mathis is fast too. Bears LT John Tait and RT Fred Miller will have their hands full with those two speed rushers. The Bears may have to leave a TE or a back in to help them out.

Watch out for...
The effects of a grass, and possibly wet field on the Colts' defensive ends. Freeney and Mathis, including the playoffs, have combined for only 5.5 sacks on grass this season, as opposed to 13 on artificial turf. The Colts will also likely try defensive line stunts and twists to try to get penetration. Also watch for Bob Sanders to possibly be deployed as a blitzer. He is like a little heat-seeking missile, though his aggressiveness could help or hurt him.

Edge
The defensive lines are comparable. The Bears have the better LBs, including two of the best in the league in Urlacher and Briggs. The Bears are a little better and have more quality depth at CB. The Colts, with Sanders, have the edge at safety, but the Bears have the edge overall.

Special Teams
Bears
The Bears have the top special teams unit in the NFL. Their kickoff and punt coverage teams, led by special teams aces Brendon Ayanbadejo and Adrian Peterson, have done a very good job all year (though they had the occasional problem with returns along the sideline). Punter Brad Maynard has done a solid job as usual, especially in the playoffs, including the key punt that set up the Bears' safety on Drew Brees against the Saints. Kicker Robbie Gould has been exceptional this season, becoming the most accurate kicker in Bears history and earning a trip to the Pro Bowl. And what else can you say about rookie return man Devin Hester, who had six return TDs in the regular season. If Hester can break a big play, especially for a TD, it would greatly increase the Bears' chances of winning. Even if the Colts kick away from him, they would still be giving away field position by squib kicking on kickoffs or punting the ball short and out of bounds.

Colts
The Colts' kickoff and punt coverage teams ranked near the bottom of the league in the regular season, and the Patriots' Ellis Hobbs had a lot of success returning kickoffs against them in the AFC Championship Game. I'm sure that this has been a point of emphasis for them the past two weeks, but I doubt that they can fix all of their coverage problems in two weeks. Punter Hunter Smith was tied for last in the NFL in net punting average in the regular season (34.5 yards) and was third to last in number of punts downed inside the 20 (14). Kicker Adam Vinatieri is simply the best clutch kicker in NFL history, not much else needs to be said about him. A lot of attention has been paid to Hester, with good reason, but Colts return man Terrence Wilkins is no slouch. He averaged 24.5 yards per kickoff return and 9.2 per punt return (with one TD) in the regular season.

Edge
Gould is no slouch, but Vinatieri is the best. The Bears have much better coverage units, the better punter, and the slightly better return man, so they get the edge here, but it's closer than some think.


Coaching
Bears
Coach Lovie Smith and his staff have done a tremendous job all season. Smith will still make the occasional curious decision, but most of the time, he makes the right one. He stayed the course with Grossman, and his team is now in the Super Bowl. He has also been a master motivator who almost always has his team ready to play. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner sometimes gets a little too repetitive with his playcalling, but has otherwise done a good job of balancing the pass with the run. Defensive coordinator Ron Rivera has shown a willingness to adapt the team's defensive scheme to different opponents (something he didn't do against Carolina in last year's playoffs), and that has definitely helped the Bears' defense adapt to the losses of DT Tommie Harris and SS Mike Brown. Special teams coach Dave Toub leads the league's top-ranked special teams unit.

Colts
Coach Tony Dungy and his staff have also done a great job this season. Dungy and Smith have shown that you don't have to scream and yell to be a great coach. Many coaches would've been out of it mentally if they were down 21-6 to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, but he told his players to hang in there, and they obviously responded with one of the greatest comebacks in playoff history. Offensive coordinator Tom Moore has been working with Manning for years and knows him inside out. Defensive coordinator Ron Meeks has done a great job of getting the Colts to buckle down on run defense in the postseason.

Edge
The two head coaches in this game are the epitome of class. Dungy and his staff have more experience, but Smith and his staff have led the Bears to a quick rise to the top of the NFC. I'll call it even here.


Intangibles
Bears
Will the contract status of Lovie Smith and Ron Rivera affect this game? I don't think so, that's for the media to blow up. How is Rex Grossman's mindset right now? I think he has a chip on his shoulder the size of the state of Florida. How do the Bears feel about being the underdog? They love it, and Smith has played that card very well in the playoffs. Rain may help the Bears' running game.

Colts
Can Peyton win the big one? I don't know, tune in tonight to find out. What is his mindset right now? It should be fine, unless he's thinking about the recently released video of his much-publicized tango. Rain may affect the Colts' ability to run precise routes.

Edge
Both teams feel like it's their time. Even.


Prediction
The Bears will come out and have moderate success running the ball, and Grossman will make at least a couple of throws to move the Bears into scoring range. They'll jump out to an early lead, and the Colts will struggle a little to move the ball in the first quarter. The Bears will run the ball increasingly better and add on to their lead, but the Colts' offense will start to move in the second quarter. At halftime, the Bears will be leading, but not by much, about 17-10. In the third quarter, a big defensive takeaway and a big special teams play from Devin Hester will help the Bears start to pull away. With the Bears running well and Grossman throwing well, Manning's possessions will be limited, and he will make a mistake or two. The fourth quarter will feature more running by the Bears and a big play from Grossman. Manning and Co. will mount a late comeback, but it will come up just short. Grossman will throw for 220 yards and 2 TDs (one to Clark, one to Berrian), and Jones and Benson will each run for one and combine for at least 140 yards rushing. The Bears' defense will get at least two takeaways. The Bears have been underestimated for much of the season, but they have found ways to win. Never underestimate the heart of a champion. Bears 34, Colts 23. MVP: Rex Grossman