Bears-49ers Preview

Here's my preview of the Bears-49ers matchup this afternoon:

Who Has the Edge?

Offense
Rex Grossman and the Bears' offense will be looking to rebound from a very poor showing in the Monday Night Miracle against the Cards. Look for the Bears to come out running the ball with Thomas Jones. Cedric Benson also is likely to receive more carries and possibly play on every third series. Also look for shorter to medium-range pass plays to be called for Grossman early on so that he can build some confidence, then offensive coordinator Ron Turner may allow Grossman to take some deep shots to Bernard Berian later. Expect the Niners to use QB Alex Smith on a lot of rollouts, bootlegs, waggles, etc. to get him away from the Bears' pass rush. If Smith has enough time, he'll try to look for Antonio Bryant deep, Arnaz Battle short, or dump it off to RB Frank Gore. Gore is the Niners' do-everything RB, but he's likely to have a rough time today against a very tough Bears front. Bryant has the speed to beat CB Charles Tillman deep, as he toasted the Bears for two late TDs as a Cleveland Brown last season, but Smith will need time for deep routes to develop, and he isn't likely to get it. Edge: Bears

Defense
For the Bears, bad tackling and a general sense of overconfidence and not being ready to play made the game against the Cards much more difficult than it should've been. This unit should come out firing against San Francisco on Sunday. One interesting thing to watch will be how Todd Johnson plays as the new starting strong safety with Mike Brown out for the season. Johnson is a smart player and big hitter who has a reputation for not always wrapping up on tackles. The loss of Brown will hurt, but Johnson has a pretty good amount of experience, having taken over for Brown after Brown tore his Achilles in 2004. The Niners... don't have much on defense, they're not very good at defending the pass or the run. I don't think they'll have much success stopping the Bears' offense. Edge: Bears

Special Teams
Bears kicker Robbie Gould has still been solid gold, and Devin Hester proved what a game-changing player he can be in the Monday Night Miracle. 49ers kicker Joe Nedney is having an average season, and returners Maurice Hicks and Brandon Williams are good but not great. Edge: Bears

Coaching
The Bears' coaching staff also needs to rebound from the Cardinals game, especially offensive coordinator Turner, who did not do a good job of playcalling in that game. Mike Nolan and his Niners staff have done a decent job with a young team. Niners offensive coordinator Norv Turner, Ron's brother, has done a good job of helping QB Alex Smith develop into a pretty good player this season. Edge: Bears

Intangibles
Some uninformed people called the Bears' early-season success a fluke after the Arizona game. The team will be very eager to prove all the haters wrong again. They'll also be wearing their orange alternate jerseys, the same ones that they beat the Niners in last season. Starting with the Bears' miracle victory against the Niners in 2001, San Francisco has gone winless against Chicago. Edge: Bears

Prediction
What should've happened to the Cards two Monday nights ago will happen to the Niners today. Bears 30, 49ers 6

Bears-Cards Postgame Thoughts

• That might've been the most ridiculous comeback in NFL history, wow. Many Bears fans likely changed the channel or turned off their TVs during the second half, but I kept watching until the end, because I just had this weird feeling. A weird feeling that, if they could keep the deficit at 20 or less, they could still come back and win the game. The same feeling I had during the Notre Dame-Michigan State football game a few weeks ago. The same feeling I had when Illinois beat... Arizona (coincidence?) to advance to the Final Four in 2005.
• Despite what you may hear from any of the team's players or coaches, the Bears started to believe the hype and took the Cards lightly. If the Bears had come out and played like they are capable of from the start, they might not have blown out the Cards, but they likely would've won by double digits.
• Let's not go overboard here with the criticism of Rex Grossman. I heard some people, including Super Bowl XX MVP Richard Dent, say that the Bears should've thought about replacing Grossman with backup Brian Griese at halftime during the second half. Nothing against the Sackman, but I think the team did the right thing by sticking with Grossman. Even at the risk of losing the game. Yes, Grossman often refused to take what the defense gave him and forced some balls, but he played better than anyone could've imagined in the first five games. Then, at the first sign of adversity, you want to pull him? How else is he going to learn? This is your franchise QB, the one you've been waiting for for decades. He is going to have good games and bad games, but he is not going to learn how to fight through adversity if he doesn't get a chance to do so. Sometimes he will make the brilliant throw, sometimes he'll make the "what was he thinking?" throw. It's a simple issue of higher risk, higher reward. You have to take some risks if you want to score a good number of points. As bad as he looked Monday night, this experience will help him down the line.
• Another thing people are overlooking is that the team's offensive struggles weren't all Grossman's fault. First of all, there were at least three (if not four or five) dropped passes by the WRs. I know that hard hits jarred a couple of those balls loose, but that is no excuse. Secondly, the offensive line was terrible in the first half, allowing constant penetration that led to both of Grossman's fumbles. Third, offensive coordinator Ron Turner turned in his worst game of the season. He has looked like a genius for most of the season, but he does have a tendency to get too pass-happy and get away from what has worked. It also happened in the Minnesota game earlier this year, but Grossman was able to recover and throw the game-winning TD pass. I have no problem with the bomb Turner called on the first offensive play, but a hyper Grossman (he often is hyper at the start of games) overthrew Berrian on what would've been an easy TD. After that happened, Turner should've tried to establish the run with Thomas Jones and give Grossman easier, more basic pass plays. Instead, two of the first 14 plays that Turner called were passes, and Grossman quickly got flustered. For the entire game, Jones got 11 carries. Cedric Benson got one. Fullback Jason McKie inexplicably got one on first and goal from the three, the worst play call of the night. Also, the quick slants that Turner repeatedly called were getting their WRs lit up. When your offense is struggling, go back to the basics and stick with what has worked in the past.
• ESPN analyst Joe Theismann was really starting to get on my nerves as the game went on, but at least he jinxed Neil Rackers before he attempted the potential game-winning 40-yard field goal. Just before the ball was snapped, I believe Theismann said, "Rackers has not missed inside 50 yards this year." Perfect.
• I also heard Dan Jiggetts on Comcast SportsNet Bears Postgame Live say that the Bears' defense did its job in the first quarter. That is simply not true, they did not show up in the first quarter. He tried to blame the defense's struggles on bad field position due to the offense, but the Cards drove 12 plays, 77 yards on their first offensive possession of the game. Just marched right down the field. The Cards' other TD drive, on their next offensive possession, was aided by a short field after a Grossman interception, but the defense has to pick up the offense sometimes. Make a play, tackle somebody, get off the field. Instead, Brian Urlacher missed Anquan Boldin (who runs like a RB after the catch), and there was no one behind Urlacher to make the tackle before Boldin scored. Missed tackles were a big problem until the fourth quarter and have been a problem at times this season. There is always a desire to go for the killshot, but you have to wrap up. The defense started to wake up in the second quarter, started to play in the third quarter, and then started to look like the Chicago Bears in the fourth quarter.
• Even though I've been a lifelong Bears fan, I have never been the biggest fan of Urlacher. Part of it is because of the off-the-field personal issues that he struggled with in the past, and part of it is because I sometimes felt that he didn't hit hard enough and got blocked too often. In the fourth quarter on Monday night, I gained a new appreciation for Urlacher. It seemed as though he made every single tackle, like there were two or three of him out there. He took over the game and seemingly willed the defense to go to another level. His strip of Edgerrin James was so vicious that I don't think any RB in the league would've held on to the ball. It was one of the best individual defensive performances I have ever seen.
• What makes the Bears' comeback even more amazing and improbable was that they had backup strong safety Todd Johnson playing nickel back for much of the second half after starter Ricky Manning Jr. got hurt, and they had third-stringer Cameron Worrell playing at strong safety for most of the fourth quarter after starter Mike Brown got hurt. Johnson usually only plays nickel back in the team's "heavy" (run defense) package.
• Devin Hester... wow. I thought that Glyn Milburn was a pretty good punt returner for the Bears several years back, but Hester is already arguably the team's best punt returner since Gale Sayers. He has the blazing speed that returners need and the strength to break arm tackles like the one the Arizona punter tried to use on Hester's 83-yard TD return. What a great weapon to have.
• Despite what some people may say, losing is not the best learning experience. The best learning experience is almost losing, then coming back to win in dramatic fashion. You know that you played badly, should've lost the game, and have a lot of work to do, but you still won the game.

Bears-Cards Preview

Here is my preview of tonight's Bears-Cards matchup:

Who Has the Edge?

Offense
The Bears will likely do what they've been doing all season: throw intermediate routes, take deep shots, and run the ball. It's just a real NFL offense, which this city hasn't had for at least a decade. I feel that the 1995 team had the best, most balanced offensive season in team history, and people are starting to pick up on that now, because Ron Turner was also the offensive coordinator for that team. Word is that the Bears have added 10 more plays to the playbook for tonight's game, so an aerial show worthy of Monday night could be in store for us. The Cardinals will likely attempt to run the ball with Edgerrin James and have rookie QB Matt Leinart throw short, quick passes so he doesn't get sacked too often. However, the Cards' offensive line is so bad that they likely won't be able to run the ball very well at all, and pass protection will be a problem. With star WR Larry Fitzgerald out, Leinart may develop tunnel vision for Anquan Boldin, leading to at least an interception or two. Edge: Bears

Defense
ESPN has reported that Bears DE Adewale Ogunleye won't play tonight, and that will hurt some, but the combo of Israel Idonije and Mark Anderson should be able to step in and do well. The game plan will basically be to put a lot of pressure on Leinart and hit him every chance they can get, forcing turnovers in the process. The Cards will likely try to blitz Grossman a lot and try to confuse him, but if they blitz, the WRs will likely be in single coverage, and we know what Bernard Berrian has done to single coverage this season. If they decide to cover Berrian deep, Grossman will be glad to throw intermediate passes to the Moose. Edge: Bears

Special Teams
Bears kicker Robbie Gould has been solid gold this season. Returners Rashied Davis and Devin Hester have done a good job and are a threat to break one every time. Cards kicker Neil Rackers, who was almost perfect last season, has struggled this year, missing all three of his 50+ yard attempts. J.J. Arrington and Troy Walters are average return men. Edge: Bears

Coaching
Lovie Smith and his staff have done an excellent job this year. Dennis Green is a pretty good coach, but he is at the mercy of his rookie QB after Kurt Warner coughed up the QB job. Edge: Bears

Intangibles
This will be the Bears' first game on the Monday night stage in three years. The Bears have historically been pretty bad on Monday Night Football, but in what could be a Super season, the team should be up to the challenge tonight. Edge: Bears

Prediction
Leinart looks like he'll be a pretty good one, but he's still a rookie. Tonight, the Bears take him back to school. Bears 34, Cardinals 9

Inside the Bears/NFL

• Anyone still think that the Ravens' defense is better than the Bears' defense? Baltimore got the Steve Smith treatment yesterday afternoon. Haven't teams learned from what Seattle did to the Panthers in the playoffs last season? You have to at least double-cover Smith, if not triple or quadruple him, in order to stop him. Beating the Panthers is really just about stopping Smith. They lost their first two games of the season without him, they've won their last four with him. I know that Keyshawn Johnson has had a pretty good season so far, but if I'm an NFL defensive coordinator, I double or triple Smith and leave Keyshawn in single coverage. Why? If Keyshawn goes off, you still can win the game. If Smith goes off, you have almost no chance.
• What a wild Rams-Seahawks game that was. Josh Brown hit both goalposts with a field goal (and it stayed out). That catch by Torry Holt (you know which one), just amazing. And that call at the end of the game, even I thought there was supposed to be a ten-second runoff.
• Don't be fooled by the fact that Cedric Benson ran for two TDs against Buffalo last week, Thomas Jones is in no danger of losing his starting job or goal-line carries. Benson just happened to be inserted for a second-quarter series, and he finished it with a TD. Jones ran well against Buffalo, notching his first 100-yard game of the season, and he likely won't lose his starting job unless he gets hurt or suddenly struggles big-time.
• That said, you can see the difference between the two RBs pretty easily. Benson shows good burst and runs over tacklers, while Jones is more of a dance around, hop-step kind of back. You can see why people thought that Benson was a better fit for the offense with his power running, but it's nice to have both of them as options. Jones has become a widely respected team leader with his great work ethic and low-key attitude.
• Bernard Berrian is for real. So is Rex Grossman. In case you didn't know by now. Berrian is likely to attract more defensive coverage now, leaving Muhsin Muhammad open more often for intermediate routes.

Bears-Bills Preview

Here is my preview of Sunday's Bears-Bills matchup at Soldier Field:

Who Has The Edge?

Offense
Bears QB Rex Grossman has been lights out this season, averaging over 250 yards and 2 TDs per game. RB Thomas Jones started to get rolling last Sunday night against Seattle, rushing for 98 yards and 2 TDs. WRs Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian have been very consistent, and TE Desmond Clark (questionable, foot) is expected to start. The Bears will likely come out and try to establish the run first, then go deep on play action to either Berrian or Moose. Buffalo QB J.P. Losman has actually been playing pretty well lately, leading the Bills to a win over Minnesota last Sunday. He is also a threat to run as well as throw. However, the third-year QB will also make his share of questionable decisions. Star RB Willis McGahee currently leads the NFL in rushing with 389 yards, though he has scored only once. Lee Evans leads an average WR corps, and TE Robert Royal is not a big part of the offense (4 catches this season). The Bills will likely try to run McGahee almost nonstop, then take the occasional deep shot to Evans. Edge: Bears

Defense
Technically, the Bears are not the #1 defense in the NFL (because the defensive rankings are determined by yards allowed), but there is not a more intimidating, balanced defensive unit in the league. DT Tommie Harris has been virtually unblockable this season, and even rookie DE Mark Anderson has 3.5 sacks in limited action. The defense has been especially impenetrable at home, where the Bears have allowed less than ten points in eight consecutive regular season games. The basic game plan will be to shut down McGahee and pressure Losman into making mistakes. Buffalo's defense is in the top half of the league, the Bills have been a little better at stopping the pass than stopping the run. They will likely try to blitz Grossman early and often as they did with Dolphins QB Daunte Culpepper in Week 2 (they sacked him five times in the first 15 plays of the game). However, Culpepper has been terrible this season; Grossman should handle the pressure better. Edge: Bears

Special Teams
The Bears hope that punter Brad Maynard will be able to play on Sunday, he's been under the weather. Kicker Robbie Gould has been spot on this season. Rookie punt returner Devin Hester has to catch the ball better and run north-south more often instead of east-west. The Bears shouldn't take away too much of Hester's creativity though, because sometimes you need to go a little east-west to be able to go north-south (did that make any sense?). The Bills' special teams rank up there with the best in the league. Kicker Rian Lindell has been solid this season, missing just one FG attempt. Kick returner Terrence McGee and punt returner Roscoe Parrish are both fast, dynamic return men with the ability to take it to the house at any time. Edge: Even

Coaching
It certainly helps to have great players, but Bears head coach Lovie Smith and his staff have done a great job of keeping the team on an even keel and playing at a very high level. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner deserves much praise for his playcalling, though he needs to remember to stick with the running game even if it isn't going well (i.e. the Minnesota game). Bills coach Dick Jauron has done a pretty good job with his defensive philosophy, but the team will need to score more in order to win games. Edge: Bears

Intangibles
Bears left guard Ruben Brown will be facing his former team, a team he doesn't like too much. Jauron will be facing his former team, and several Bills players also used to play for the Bears (Mike Gandy, Anthony Thomas, Daimon Shelton, etc.). After last Sunday night's beatdown of Seattle, this game could bring a letdown for the Bears, but a loud Soldier Field crowd (and memories of the playoff loss to Carolina) should remind the team of the task at hand. Edge: Bears

Prediction
Unless the Bears have a big-time letdown and turn the ball over multiple times, the Bills don't have much of a chance in this game. Thomas Jones runs for one TD, Grossman throws for another one, and the Bears cruise. Bears 23, Bills 6

Inside the Bears

• Despite the Bears' early-season success, last Sunday night's 37-6 beating of the Seahawks was the game that the team needed to win in order to finally gain some of the respect that they deserve from the national media. Yeah, Seattle didn't have star RB Shaun Alexander, but would he have made a 31-point difference? I don't think so. Before the season started, I didn't see any "expert", not even one, say that the Bears would even make it to the NFC Championship Game. Any thoughts of the Super Bowl likely would've been laughed at. Oh wait, there was at least one person who said that the Bears were Super Bowl contenders... that would be yours truly, in this team preview that I wrote for Pro Fantasy Sports.
• If you look at all three phases of the game, the Bears are the best team in the NFL right now. ESPN's Sean Salisbury and Steve Young admitted as much after the Seahawks game. Some media types are still skeptical about this team because of their perceptions of how they thought the team would be (good defense, bad offense). But if you put your prejudices aside, the Bears are the best, most balanced team in the league at the moment. They have arguably their best, most balanced offense since 1995 thanks to the emergence of Rex Grossman and Bernard Berrian, they have a dominant defense, and their special teams have been special. Sure, the Colts have Peyton Manning, but their defense doesn't hold a candle to the Bears' defense. The Ravens' defense is playing at a very high level, but Steve McNair and Jamal Lewis have both been very average players on an average offense. Baltimore almost lost to Cleveland and probably should've lost to San Diego last Sunday.
• The Seahawks' game plan to spread the Bears' defense out with four WRs obviously didn't work too well. Four WRs means fewer blockers, and with the Bears' front four, that's a recipe for disaster. Seattle backup RB Maurice Morris is a pretty good player, but he's no Alexander, and the Bears knew to focus more on Seattle's passing game than their running game. The Bears kept weak-side LB Lance Briggs on the field with the Nickel package because they don't have a Dime package, and Briggs wound up having a very good game.
• Did I think that Grossman was going to be this good? No, but I did think that he could average about 200 passing yards and 1-2 TDs per game. Through four games, he's averaging 250+ yards and 2 TDs per game. Can he sustain these lofty numbers? I don't think so, not because Grossman will regress, but because the running game started to get going against Seattle and should be a bigger part of the offense as the season goes on. I still think that Grossman should be able to average at least 215 yards and 1-2 TDs per game for the rest of the season, if he stays healthy.
• Speaking of the running game, it was good to see Thomas Jones finally make some nice runs against Seattle, which came into the game ranked #2 in the league in rushing defense. Cedric Benson also got his share of carries, and I think that coach Lovie Smith would ideally like Jones to carry 20-25 times per game while Benson carries about 10-12 times per game.
• What else can you say about Bernard Berrian? He has proved his critics wrong, consistently running by coverages and catching bomb after bomb. Even I was skeptical about whether he could do this on a consistent basis, but he's done it so far, and I certainly hope that he can keep this up. Muhsin Muhammad has been rock-solid at the other WR spot, catching virtually everything that's been thrown to him. You can see the chemistry that he and Grossman have.

Bears-Seahawks Preview

Here's my preview of tonight's big NFC showdown between the Bears and the Seahawks at Soldier Field.

Who Has The Edge?

Offense
After offensive coordinator Ron Turner went a little overboard with the passing game last week against Minnesota, the Bears will likely do their best to establish the run against Seattle. Thomas Jones needs to start finding the holes more often or Cedric Benson may start to get more carries. It won't be easy though; the Seahawks are second in the NFL in run defense, allowing just under 59 yards per game on the ground. Rex Grossman has been everything a Bears fan could want (and more), but he must do his best to not turn the ball over, or Seattle's offense may make him pay. If TE Desmond Clark doesn't play, Grossman will have to mainly rely on WRs Muhsin Muhammad, Bernard Berrian, and Rashied Davis. Seattle will likely try to spread the Bears' defense out by using 4-WR sets, then either throwing out of them or running draw-type plays to backup RB Maurice Morris. Even without star RB Shaun Alexander, the Seahawks' WR corps makes this a dynamic offense that can score at any time. Edge: Slight edge to Seattle.

Defense
The Bears have arguably the best defense in the NFL, but they'll be facing their stiffest challenge yet in the Seahawks. With the Seahawks deploying so many quality WRs, the Bears must get a good pass rush on QB Matt Hasselbeck, or it could be a long night for the Monsters of the Midway. If there's a current version of the No Name Defense, it could be Seattle. There aren't exactly any household names on this unit, but they do a pretty good job of stopping opposing offenses. Second-year middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu is one of the more recognizable names on this defense. Edge: Chicago

Special Teams
For the Bears, Rashied Davis has done a good job returning kickoffs, and punt returner Devin Hester still makes the occasional rookie mistake but is a threat to take it to the house on any return. Kicker Robbie Gould has been excellent this season, showing great accuracy and improving range. For the Seahawks, Willie Ponder and Jimmy Williams have both done a good job of returning kickoffs and punts, respectively. However, kicker Josh Brown has been a little shaky this season, already having missed three FG attempts. Edge: Chicago

Coaching
Lovie Smith and his staff have done a great job so far, but Smith still makes questionable challenge calls at times, and offensive coordinator Turner needs to get back to the running game. Seattle's Mike Holmgren has been near-perfect against the Bears, but that was at a different time with a different team. He is still a solid veteran coach, though. Edge: Even

Intangibles
The game will be played on national television in front of a raucous Soldier Field crowd. The Bears will also look at this game as a chance to finally get the respect that they deserve from the national media, giving the Bears the advantage here. Edge: Chicago

Prediction
Bears 23, Seahawks 16