NFC Championship Game Preview

Here's my in-depth look at Sunday's NFC Championship Game between the Chicago Bears and the New Orleans Saints:

From what the national "experts" have been saying, you would think that the Saints' offense will be lining up with no defense on the field. Contrary to popular opinion, there will also be 11 guys lining up across from them in navy blue jerseys, and some of them are pretty good. What everyone (including the "experts") seems to be forgetting is that you win football games with three phases, not just one. Somewhere along the way, the Saints offense has become almost mythical to many people, like they're the '99 Rams or something. But you win with offense, defense, and special teams. For all the talk about the "best offense in NFL history" (the Saints) and the inconsistent, terrible Bears offense, the Bears scored more points per game than the Saints did in the regular season. Shocked? The Saints offense is "#1" because they had more yards per game than any other offense, but the Bears scored 26.7 points per game this year, and the Saints had 25.8 per game. Not a huge difference, but clearly indicative that the Bears should at least be able to stay close on offense. I'll take points over yards any day. It'll be Cinderella against the Big Bad Bears, here we go:

Offense
Bears Gameplan
The Bears will likely try to establish the run with Thomas Jones and start Rex Grossman off with easy short-to-intermediate throws to get him into a rhythm. Because the Saints' defensive ends will be trying to get upfield quickly to get after Grossman, the Bears may try to run right at them and throw screen passes to keep them off balance. It will be important for Grossman to find TE Desmond Clark, who he found only once in the divisional playoff win over Seattle. As I've repeatedly said this season, this offense is at its best when Grossman throws to Clark, especially in the red zone. If Grossman starts well, then offensive coordinator Ron Turner will likely have him test the Saints' cornerbacks deep via play action, particularly #2 CB Fred Thomas. The Saints like to play press man-to-man coverage on the outside. Some "experts" have said that this will mean disaster for Grossman, but has anyone thought that maybe, just maybe, the reason why the Saints allowed the second-most TD passes of any team during the regular season (26) is because they play man coverage with an average secondary? If the Bears have the lead late, they will likely pound away with a heavy dose of Cedric Benson.

Key Matchups
Bears WR Bernard Berrian vs. Saints CB Fred Thomas: Thomas got burned on a long TD pass to Donte Stallworth against the Eagles last week and is susceptible to double moves like the stop and go that Stallworth put on him. The Bears will likely try to match Berrian on Thomas and toast him at least a couple of times. With his speed, Berrian shouldn't even need a double move to run by Thomas.

Bears LT John Tait vs. Saints RE Will Smith: Tait has had some trouble with speed rushers this season, and Smith fits that bill. Tait will need to play extremely well in protecting Grossman's blind side, especially considering Grossman's propensity to fumble the ball after getting hit.

Saints Gameplan
The Saints will also likely try to establish the run by pounding Deuce McAllister into the middle of the Bears' defensive line, which struggled at times last week against Shaun Alexander. One thing the Saints are likely to try is to spread the Bears' defense out with a three-WR, one-back set, then pound McAllister against the Bears' nickel package. The Seahawks had a lot of success doing that last week. Drew Brees will try to execute short precision passes, especially to his favorite target, rookie Marques Colston. If the Saints have success with the running game, that might open up deep play action shots to speedster Devery Henderson. WR Joe Horn will not play, so Terrance Copper will serve as the third WR. The Saints will also try to line Reggie Bush up all over the field and look for mismatches. Bush may not be able to cut quite as well on grass, but he would still be faster than most players on that surface. If the Saints get a lead, expect to see a lot of McAllister.

Key Matchups
Saints RB Reggie Bush vs. Bears LBs: It'll be interesting to see how the Bears plan to cover Bush. Brian Urlacher is one of the few LBs in the league who could give Bush a run for his money. Lance Briggs isn't quite as fast, and Bush on Hunter Hillenmeyer would not be a good matchup for the Bears. Another thing the Saints may do is put Bush and McAllister in the same backfield, then split Bush out as a WR. In this case, he might have to be covered by a DB. The Saints could also choose to run McAllister out of this formation. Bears defenders must not hesitate when attempting to tackle Bush, or they would likely get juked.

Saints WR Marques Colston vs. Bears CB Charles Tillman: The Bears usually play a "Tampa Two" (a variation of the Cover-2 scheme in which the MLB drops back into the deep middle), but when they faced the Giants earlier this season, they often put Tillman in man-to-man coverage with trash-talking WR Plaxico Burress. Burress was held to four catches for 48 yards. The Bears may try to do the same thing today against Colston, who has great size (6-4) and deceptive speed. Tillman is the Bears' biggest, most physical CB at 6-1, so he is best-suited to cover Colston. Tillman has always struggled with fast WRs, so the Saints may try to match up Henderson on him and take a deep shot.

The Edge
The RBs and WRs for these teams are fairly even, so the slight edge goes to the team that has the more consistent QB, which is the Saints.


Defense
Bears Gameplan
The Bears must focus on three main things: 1) stopping the run, especially up the middle, 2) getting pressure on Brees, and 3) forcing turnovers. Shaun Alexander repeatedly gashed the Bears' D-line up the middle last Sunday, and it would be a long day for them if they let McAllister do the same thing. Brees can pick a defense apart with a surgeon's precision if given time to throw, so DEs Alex Brown, Adewale Ogunleye, and Mark Anderson need to get to Brees early and often. Pressure up the middle from DTs Tank Johnson and Ian Scott would also greatly help, because Brees is even shorter than Grossman and could have trouble throwing over traffic if he has pressure in his face. After averaging around three takeaways per game in the first half of the season, the Bears' takeaway rate has dwindled to about one per game in the past several games. In what is likely to be a very close game, a takeaway (or better yet, a defensive TD) could turn the tide and be the difference in the game.

Saints Gameplan
The major part of the Saints' defensive gameplan will be getting pressure on Grossman in any way possible. Rushing with their front four, blitzing LBs, blitzing DBs, any possible way to rattle Rex. Grossman has shown that, if given time to throw, he can be very accurate and make good decisions. If the Saints can't get pressure on him, it could be a long day for them, especially with an average LB corps and secondary. They'll also try hard to get pressure up the middle to block Grossman's vision. The Saints' second defensive priority will be stopping Jones and Benson. DT Hollis Thomas, suspended for the final four games of the regular season for violating the NFL's drug policy, returned against the Eagles and helped the Saints' run defense. He can be very difficult to move, and the Bears will need to find a way to handle him if they want to have success running the ball.

The Edge
The defensive lines are comparable. With a much better LB corps (featuring two of the best LBs in the league) and a better, deeper secondary, the Bears have the clear edge here.


Special Teams
Bears
Devin Hester is the best return man in the league... when he catches the ball. He had more ball security issues against Seattle, and he simply cannot afford to have any more of them against New Orleans. Catch the ball, secure it, then run. You could make a strong case for kicker Robbie Gould being the MVP of this team, especially after his game-winning 49-yarder in overtime last week. Punter Brad Maynard is solid as usual, and had the additional honor of being voted "sexiest Bear" in a recent newspaper poll. No comment.

Saints
Kickoff returner Michael Lewis isn't as dynamic as he used to be, but the former beer man can still break a long return on occasion. Punt returner Bush is comparable to Hester in ability, but wasn't nearly as productive, with a 7.7 average and one TD (Hester had a 12.8 average and three TDs). Veteran kicker John Carney is up there in age but as accurate as ever, with only two misses in the regular season. His range isn't what it used to be, which is part of the reason why the team signed Billy Cundiff late in the season. Punter Steve Weatherford had a good rookie season, with a 43.8 average and 19 punts downed inside the 20.

The Edge
With the most dangerous return man in the game and a Pro Bowl kicker, the Bears have the edge here as well. Their kickoff coverage team needs to play better than it did against Seattle though.


Coaching
Bears
Bears coach Lovie Smith is in his third season, and the team has gotten better each year under his direction. He will make the occasional questionable decision or mistake (like the much-ballyhooed decison to call timeout with two seconds left in regulation against Seattle), but for the most part they don't hurt the team. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner's playcalling can get a little pass-happy and predictable at times (i.e. using routes like the quick slant repeatedly), but he has done a pretty good job this season. Defensive coordinator Ron Rivera will have his hands full with the Saints' offense, but word is that he'll have some new pressure packages ready for this game. He'll also have to be willing to change his gameplan if necessary. His refusal to give special attention to Steve Smith and make adjustments during the game was a big reason why the Bears lost to the Panthers last season.

Saints
Saints coach Sean Payton has done a remarkable job of changing the losing culture in New Orleans. He has also been a master playcaller, leading the Saints to the #1 offense (in terms of yardage) in the NFL. Defensive coordinator Gary Gibbs has done a pretty good job of getting the most out of an average defense by bringing pressure.

The Edge
The Bears get the slight edge here because Lovie Smith and his staff have been in place for two years (Turner came on board in Smith's second season) and have more experience than Payton. The Bears have also been stellar in games decided by three points or less since Smith took over.


Intangibles
Bears
What kind of effect will the weather have? It'll be around 30 degrees with possible snow flurries at game time, which might give a slight edge to the Bears, who are more used to this weather. A huge weight was lifted off this team's shoulders after their win over Seattle, their first home playoff win in 16 years. How will the Bears react to their biggest game since 1989? And how will they perform after being viewed as the underdog by most of the "experts"? I think this team will play looser and has a good idea of what kind of intensity level they'll need to play at now.

Saints
This football team has lifted the spirits of a city still trying to recover from Hurricane Katrina. The Saints have never been to a Super Bowl. Some feel that this is a team of destiny. The majority of the country (outside of Illinois) will be rooting for them. Win or lose, they've been a great story. It'll be interesting to see how they handle the weather after practicing indoors all week.

The Edge
I'll call it even here. Each team has everything to play for.


Prediction
The Bears' defense, disrespected all week, comes out firing, and the Bears jump out to an early lead. The game will be fairly even after that, but the Bears will do a good job of holding the Saints to field goals, and either the Bears' defense or special teams (or both) will make a big play that directly leads to a score. Grossman will play well, and the Bears will run the ball well. Devin Hester and clutch WR Rashied Davis will also be key factors, but it will be the much-maligned defense that makes the biggest difference today. The Bears have felt a lack of respect all season, now is the time to show everyone how good they really are. Bears 27, Saints 20

NFC Divisional Playoffs: Bears-Seahawks Preview

It's crunch time now. Here's my preview of Sunday afternoon's Divisional Playoff game between the Bears and Seahawks:

Who Has the Edge?

Offense
The Bears will likely start off establishing the run with Thomas Jones and limiting Rex Grossman to short and intermediate routes to the RBs and TE Desmond Clark. If Grossman has success, then the coaches may allow him to take some deep shots against the patchwork Seattle secondary. The game plan will also depend on the weather, which is expected to be a "wintry mix" of snow, sleet, etc. If Grossman throws one pick, he'll probably be given one last chance. One more pick, and it'll be time for the fans' savior, Brian Griese. Grossman just has to trust his reads, throw to the open man, and not forget about Clark. This offense is at its best when Clark is involved. Seattle will likely try to pound the ball with Shaun Alexander, who missed the Bears' 37-6 beating of the Seahawks in October. Alexander hasn't fully looked like himself (or at least the 2005 version, anyway) at any point this season, but he is still a dangerous RB. With WRs Darrell Jackson and D.J. Hackett being game-time decisions and not likely to play, Deion Branch and former Bear Bobby Engram should be Matt Hasselbeck's main targets. TE Jerramy Stevens had a big game against Dallas last week, but is inconsistent (and has a big mouth). If the Bears can fluster him early, they can greatly reduce his effectiveness. Edge: Bears

Defense
The Bears' defense is as healthy as it's been for a long time. Mike Brown and Tommie Harris are on IR, but virtually everyone else is mostly healthy now. CB Charles Tillman returns from a bad back and will help restore order in the secondary, allowing Ricky Manning Jr. to return to his nickel back position. Todd Johnson will likely see some time at strong safety, but it looks like Chris Harris will keep his starting job at the position for now. DTs Tank Johnson and Ian Scott must generate some pressure up the middle to help the defensive ends and reduce the Bears' need to blitz. Mark Anderson introduced himself to Walter Jones in the Bears' blowout win, it'll be interesting to see how Jones handles him this time around. Hitting Alexander before he can get a full head of steam will be very important, as will getting a consistent pass rush on Hasselbeck. Seattle's secondary is extremely banged up, with CBs Marcus Trufant, Kelly Herndon, and Jimmy Williams out. Safety-turned-cornerback Jordan Babineaux will likely be covering Muhsin Muhammad, and rookie Kelly Jennings will likely draw Bernard Berrian, with nickel back and former loan officer Pete Hunter drawing Rashied Davis/Mark Bradley. Davis or Bradley could come up with a big play here. The Seahawks will have to generate pressure on Grossman in any way they can, with or without blitzing, because he will pick them apart if he has time and space in the pocket. Edge: Bears

Special Teams
With Tillman back in the fold and Ricky Manning Jr. back in his nickel position, Devin Hester can now just focus on returns, so maybe that will get him out of his recent slump. He must make sure to secure the ball in what are likely to be adverse weather conditions. Robbie Gould needs to stay consistent, and we've seen the importance of getting the snap and the hold right. Nate Burleson has been pretty dangerous for the Seahawks as a return man, with one punt returned for a TD in the regular season and a 24.7 average on kickoff returns. Kicker Josh Brown is as clutch as they come, having already made a few game-winning field goals this season. Edge: Bears

Coaching
Mike Holmgren has had his share of success against the Bears (thanks mostly to Brett Favre), but whatever edge he has in experience over Lovie Smith may be offset by the lack of players he can put on the field on Sunday. Holmgren will have to do one hell of a coaching job to have his team in position to win. If Smith doesn't make any big mistakes, his team should come out on top. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner needs to watch his playcalling, which has become predictable and too pass-happy at times this season. Throw too many quick slants and skinny posts, and teams will start jumping those routes. Edge: Even

Intangibles
History and the weather look to be the biggest intangibles here. The Bears haven't won a home playoff game since 1991, and a playoff game anywhere since 1995. They have lost two home playoff games in a row after having first round byes. If they fall behind early, will the players think "here we go again"? Or will their bitter memories of last year's divisional playoff loss to the Panthers spur them on to victory? If the weather is very sloppy, it may limit the passing game for both teams and make turnovers more likely. After winning a game they probably should've lost, the Seahawks are playing with house money. Will they come out fired up and looking for revenge? Edge: Even

Prediction
With the weight of history and an entire city on their shoulders, the Bears finally rise to the occasion and win their first home playoff game in 16 years. The defense, now healthy as they'll get, steps up with its best effort since November. Grossman will play reasonably well, and Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson will help chew up the clock, especially if the field is sloppy. Bears 27, Seahawks 13