Bears-Packers Preview

First off, Happy New Year to everyone! Now, here's my preview of tonight's Bears-Packers regular season finale:

Who Has the Edge?

Offense
Expect the Bears starters to play into the third quarter and for Lovie Smith to try to get them out on a good note (i.e. after a scoring drive). The game plan again is simple: run the ball well, remember the intermediate routes to Clark and Muhammad, and take the occasional deep shot to Berrian, etc. with play action. The Packers will likely try to establish Ahman Green, but you can also expect a good amount of throwing from Brett Favre. You'd have a hard time finding someone who thinks that this will be Favre's last game, most people (including yours truly) think he will come back. Edge: Bears

Defense
Again, expect Bears starters to play into the third quarter and for Smith to try to get them out on a high note. The Bears need to work on their pass defense after getting gashed through the air the past few weeks. Tank Johnson will make his return to the lineup, but is not guaranteed to start. Also look for Todd Johnson to be worked into the rotation some more at safety. The Packers will try to slow the Bears running game and get pressure on Grossman. DE Aaron Kampman is a Pro Bowler with 15.5 sacks this season. Edge: Bears

Special Teams
For the Bears, Robbie Gould needs to continue to solidify his kicking stroke, and Devin Hester needs to get his groove back on returns after a shaky outing against Detroit last week. Packers kicker Dave Rayner has had an average year, going 24 for 32 on field goals. Vernand Morency and Charles Woodson have been average on kickoff and punt returns, with no TDs. Edge: Bears

Coaching
Bears coaches face the question of when to rest their starters, that is the main issue for them tonight. Packer coaches will just try to get their team to play hard and beat a division rival with the playoffs out of reach. Edge: Bears

Intangibles
There are a whole bunch of intangibles for this game. How long will the Bears' starters play? Will there be a higher premium placed on resting the starters or winning the game? Will the Bears play down to their competition again? How hard will the Packers play now that they've been eliminated from playoff contention? How will the full moon affect the game? Ok, forget the last one. I expect the Packers to come out with energy, whether they'll be able to sustain it is another question. Edge: Even

Prediction
Even though it's the hated Cheeseheads, it'll be hard for the Bears to get up for this one with home field advantage already wrapped up. A close, ugly victory... Bears 23, Packers 17

Bears-Lions Preview

Here's my preview of today's Bears-Lions game:

Games like this where one team has already clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and the other has basically mailed it in for the season are somewhat hard to predict, but I'll give it a shot. I expect the main Bears starters to play until about halfway through the third quarter.

Who Has the Edge?

Offense
For the Bears, the game plan is simple: do what you've been doing the past two games. Run the ball well with Jones and Benson, and make sure to remember the intermediate routes to TE Clark and WR Muhammad. Once you've established the run, take a deep shot or two with play action. The plan may be altered slightly today though, with starters like Grossman, Jones, and Muhammad expected to sit out some or all of the second half. Expect to see a shot of Vitamin B3: Benson, Berrian, and Bradley. The Lions will probably do what they've been doing since star RB Kevin Jones got hurt: throw, throw, and throw some more (without much success). QB Jon Kitna hasn't thrown more than one TD pass in a game since Week 7. WR Roy Williams is the Lions' only legitimate offensive threat now. Edge: Bears

Defense
The banged-up Bears D gets CB Nathan Vasher and SS Todd Johnson back today, but CB Charles Tillman and his bad back are inactive. Ricky Manning Jr. will start for Tillman, with Devin Hester likely playing the nickel again. Embattled DT Tank Johnson has been suspended for this game, so Ian Scott and Alfonso Boone will start at DT again. Scott and Boone need to do a better job of generating some pressure up the middle so that the Bears don't have to blitz so much. Todd Johnson's return should help in coverage, where Chris Harris tends to get caught out of position at times. With the Lions' running game (Arlen Harris and Aveion Cason) not much of a threat, the Bears should concentrate on pressuring Kitna into turnovers. With star DT Shaun Rogers on IR, the Lions D does not present much of a challenge. Edge: Bears

Special Teams
After his fumbling problems resurfaced last week, Devin Hester must concentrate on securing the ball as he avoids defenders. Robbie Gould also must work out his problems after missing a potential game-winning FG in overtime against the Bucs. Eddie Drummond has been one of the best return men in the league for a few years now, though he doesn't have a TD this season. Jason Hanson has three misses from 50+ yards, but has been otherwise accurate. Edge: Even

Coaching
Lovie Smith and Co. have taken a beating from some fans and media for their handling of the Tank Johnson situation. There is no right or wrong, clear-cut answer, but they'll have to deal with the consequences. Rod Marinelli and Mike Martz might be a good combo in a couple years or so, but they just don't have the players right now, especially with Kevin Jones' career in question. Edge: Bears

Intangibles
With Tank Johnson having been punished, I think the players have moved past it for now. How much the Bears will play their starters is probably the biggest question for them. Some Lions fans are apparently planning another walkout during this game... Edge: Bears

Prediction
Should be a fairly uneventful game... just hope that nobody gets hurt. Bears 27, Lions 13

Bears-Bucs Preview

Here's my preview of this afternoon's Bears-Bucs tilt:

Who Has the Edge?

Offense
After saving his job last week, Rex Grossman can relax just a little bit more today. It will still be important to follow the keys to last week's game plan: run the ball well with Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson, and remember the intermediate routes to Muhsin Muhammad and TE Desmond Clark. Once the Bears establish the run, then hit the Bucs with play action. It's not so hard, it it? The Bucs will try to pound the Bears' depleted D-line with Cadillac Williams and the ageless Mike Alstott, then try to hit WR Joey Galloway deep. Even though Galloway is up there in age, he still has the elite speed that can easily toast Bears CBs Charles Tillman and Ricky Manning Jr. Edge: Bears

Defense
Thanks to the Tank Johnson fiasco, the Bears are now down to just three true defensive tackles: Ian Scott, Alfonso Boone, and Antonio Garay. Israel Idonije can play both tackle and end. With Nathan Vasher due to miss another game and Todd Johnson questionable, the secondary also remains depleted. The pass rush will take a hit, but the run defense may actually improve slightly because Scott and Boone are better run stuffers than pass rushers. The key for the Bear defense will be to stall the Cadillac and rattle Bruce Gradkowski/Tim Rattay/anyone else that Chucky decides to throw out there at QB. They'll also need to make sure that whoever happens to be covering Galloway has safety help, because Galloway can still burn anyone. The Bucs D has improved against the run in the past few games, but they still haven't done well against the pass. With Simeon Rice out for the season and players like Derrick Brooks up there in age, this unit just isn't quite what it used to be, but it can still be effective. The key for them will be to limit the Bears' running game and try to force Grossman into turnovers. Edge: Bears

Special Teams
There aren't enough superlatives to describe what Devin Hester has done this season, but Robbie Gould uncharacteristically missed both of his field goal attempts against the Rams last week, so he needs to rebound today. The Bucs have still never returned a kickoff for a TD in franchise history, while kicker Matt Bryant has four misses from 40+ yards but has that 62-yard game-winner to brag about. Edge: Bears

Coaching
Lovie Smith needs to keep his team together after the Tank Johnson fiasco, and did the right thing in deactivating Johnson for this game. Johnson likely has played his final snap as a Bear. He has had multiple chances already to stay out of trouble, but he just can't seem to do it. Jon Gruden's job may be in jeopardy in Tampa, where it has been almost all downhill since their Super Bowl win in the 2002 season. Edge: Bears

Intangibles
How will the Bears players react to the Tank Johnson situation? The bigger question might be how the defense will hold up with so many starters out. Edge: Even

Prediction
Even with all the turmoil surrounding the Bears right now... the Bucs just aren't very good. Bears 24, Bucs 3

Bears-Rams Preview

Here's my preview of tonight's Bears-Rams Monday Night Football matchup:

For the record, I think that Rex Grossman should start tonight's game, but if he looks like he did last week against Minnesota, he should be pulled at halftime or possibly sooner. The hope is that Grossman can get out of his slump and play well for the rest of the season, but even I realize that at some point winning becomes more important than developing a young QB. However, if you're a Bears fan, you should be rooting for Grossman to succeed. After years and years of mediocre backup-type QBs, don't you want a franchise QB? There are a lot of knee-jerk fans in this city who want results now and don't want to look at the big picture. Between the fans and the media, it has become a witch-hunt of sorts to bench Grossman, who is getting the full Cade McNown treatment now after being treated like the best Bears QB since Sid Luckman early in the season. This is not helping him.

Who Has the Edge?

Offense
Tonight, the Bears need to do some of the things that they should've done last week, namely get the intermediate routes back in the offense. Get TE Desmond Clark off the side of the milk carton and throw to him. Do the same thing with Muhsin Muhammad. The Rams are also among the worst in the NFL against the run, so the Bears need to pound the ball with Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. They should combine for around 150 yards rushing tonight. Grossman needs to have better ball placement, better decision making, and better footwork, but above all else, he just needs to read and react and not think too much. Just do it. The Rams will likely try to pound the ball with RB Steven Jackson, especially with Bears star DT Tommie Harris out for this game and possibly the season. Jackson is also a very good pass catcher out of the backfield, with 72 catches going into tonight's game. If they have success running the ball, then they'll try to go deep via play action to Torry Holt. Holt on Charles Tillman is not a good matchup for Tillman, who lacks top-end speed. Another interesting matchup could come when the Bears go to their nickel package. Rookie Devin Hester could move to the #2 CB spot with Ricky Manning Jr. moving to his usual nickel CB position, putting Hester on wily veteran Issac Bruce. If Hester plays the nickel CB position, he'd be facing quick slot WR Kevin Curtis. The Rams may very well try to take advantage of these matchups. Edge: Even

Defense
The Bears defense continues to get more depleted by the week. Star DT Harris is out for the season with a severe hamstring injury, and CB Nathan Vasher and S Todd Johnson won't start tonight. Harris drew double-teams on a very high percentage of plays, so the other D-linemen will have to step up big-time. Ian Scott and Alfonso Boone will platoon at DT in Harris' place. The main goal will be to stop Steven Jackson and limit big plays in the passing game. The Rams defense will try to do the same thing every team tries to do against the Bears: send everything and the kitchen sink at Grossman and hope that he cracks. If their defense has success stopping the Bears' running game, it could be a long night for the road team. Edge: Bears

Special Teams
With Devin Hester, Robbie Gould, and Brad Maynard (along with special teams ace Brendon Ayanbadejo and Co.), the Bears have the edge on just about every team in this category. The Rams' return game is average, and Jeff Wilkins is a solid veteran whose only trouble this season has been between 40-49 yards, where he has three misses this season. Edge: Bears

Coaching
Lovie Smith faces potentially the toughest choice of his Bears career tonight: whether or not to pull Grossman. The decision he makes could drastically alter the course of this season, a season expected to end in a Super Bowl run. Rams coach Scott Linehan needs to get his team going again, especially after QB Marc Bulger called out his teammates after last week's loss. Edge: Bears

Intangibles
Rex Grossman's season - and career - hang in the balance tonight. How he responds will likely determine whether the Bears will go to Miami in February for the Super Bowl. How will Bulger's comments affect the Rams? Will they come together or come apart at the seams? Edge: Even

Prediction
Grossman is efficient, if not great, and the Bears' defense steps up without three of their starters. Hester may even take an interception back for a TD. Bears 23, Rams 13

Inside the NFL

Some NFL thoughts:

The way people on ESPN, etc. have been talking about Tony Romo, you might as well start preparing his Hall of Fame bust right now. The league will adjust to him once they get enough film on him, just like the league adjusted to Grossman. I think you saw a little bit of that last night. He is not Troy Aikman just yet. As you also saw last night, the Cowboys' D can be beat deep. Don't crown them as NFC champions just yet.

Jay Cutler isn't quite John Elway yet either, though people made it seem as though he was already Elway before he made his first start last week. He has a great arm, but expecting him to walk right into the league and lead the Broncos to the playoffs might have been asking for too much.

Nothing personal (ok, maybe it is a little personal after last year's playoffs), but I've felt since before the season started that Carolina was overrated. Their supposedly impenetrable defense has blown a lot of fourth quarter leads this year. On offense, there is little or no running game (because they insist on keeping DeShaun Foster as the starter), and it really just comes down to stopping Steve Smith. And yes, Smith can be stopped (remember what Seattle did to him in last year's NFC Championship Game). It amuses me how people like Sean Salisbury keep making excuses for the Panthers, I wonder what he'll say now after another loss.

If Indy doesn't do something about that run defense, wow. I watched that game yesterday and saw the Jaguars pile up an astounding 375 yards rushing. The Colts' defensive line is quick but undersized, and the defense is also missing defensive tackles Montae Reagor and Corey Simon, along with safeties Mike Doss and Bob Sanders. The tackling also was atrocious. I shudder at the thought of what LT would do to this Colts defense.

The Patriots... I'm not quite sure how to explain what happened to them Sunday. I know that the Dolphins have been playing pretty good defense lately, but wow. Not having Maroney hurt, and Ben Watson got hurt during the game, but from what I heard, Brady was taking a beating and they took him out to prevent him from getting knocked around even more.

I've been impressed by the Eagles the past two weeks. Like most people, I wrote them off once McNabb got hurt, but Jeff Garcia has shocked me with efficient performances (not even one interception since he took over), and he's even completing the occasional deep ball to Stallworth and Brown. The defense has to improve, though.

The Saints have obviously been very explosive, and they've done a pretty good job on defense the past three games, but I still have my doubts about their defense.

Bears-Vikings Preview

Here's my preview of today's Bears-Vikes game at frosty Soldier Field in Chicago:

Who Has the Edge?

Offense
In a season of "biggest games", this will again be Rex Grossman's biggest game of the season as he tries to bounce back from another poor performance. Just as importantly, offensive coordinator Ron Turner must rein in and change up his playcalling. As everyone has duly noted, Grossman must make better decisions and throws, but Turner needs to temper his desire to go deep and focus more on the intermediate routes to Muhsin Muhammad and TE Desmond Clark that the team had success with early in the season. Turner also needs to change some of the routes that the receivers run. As evidenced by last week's game against the Patriots, opposing teams know that the quick slant and skinny post are coming now, to the point where cornerbacks like Asante Samuel are jumping those routes and getting interceptions. This offense was at its best earlier in the season when TE Clark was heavily involved. In the first seven games, Clark averaged almost four catches per game and was among the league leaders in receiving yards for tight ends. In the past four games, Clark has a total of seven catches and one TD. The Bears must also continue to run the ball effectively, even though it will be difficult to run on the NFL's #1 run defense. The Vikings will try to run, run, and run some more with Chester Taylor, especially with deep threat WR Troy Williamson inactive due to inconsistency. Runs and short passes will be the order of the day for them. Edge: Even

Defense
Another game, another injured strong safety for the Bears. Chris Harris will replace Todd Johnson (sprained ankle) today, and he will have to be solid in run support. With Marcus Robinson the only real deep threat active for Minnesota today, Harris shouldn't be tested in coverage too much, which is a good thing. Stopping Chester Taylor and getting an improved pass rush from the recently much-maligned defensive line will be the main goals for the Bears defense today. The Vikings, like every other Bears opponent, will try to get after Grossman every chance they get. Their #1 run defense will also try to stuff the Bears' running game, though DT Pat Williams (questionable) may be somewhat limited. Edge: Bears

Special Teams
The Bears' special teams unit will have to clean up their mistakes from last week's game against New England, the first game where the unit has had multiple notable breakdowns. Former Patriot Bethel Johnson has been average on kickoff returns, while Mewelde Moore has been better on punt returns, with a 71-yard TD return to his credit. Edge: Bears

Coaching
Either Turner needs to rein in his game plan, or Lovie Smith needs to do it for him. The Vikings were the first team to successfully rattle Grossman with pressure, now they'll have to do it again. Edge: Bears

Intangibles
It was an interesting week leading up to this game, with a little war of words between Vikes safety Darren Sharper and Grossman, as well as more controversy stirred up by Bears backup RB Cedric Benson. Sharper acted as though he'd never said a bad word in his life when he talked about what Grossman said to the Vikings after Grossman threw the game-winning TD pass in their meeting earlier this season. Meanwhile, Benson continues to try to create conflict when he should just shut his mouth and take advantage of the carries that he does get. The Bears' defensive line also took offense to newspaper articles that questioned their lack of a pass rush in the past few games, it'll be interesting to see how they respond in this game. Edge: Bears

Prediction
The Bears will win... ugly. Bears 20, Vikings 9